Off-Season Schedule
8/2 | Free Agency Begins
8/6 | Alen Smailgić’s salary guarantees
8/6 | Steph Curry becomes extension eligible
8/8 | Las Vegas Summer League Begins
8/11 | Gary Payton II’s salary partially guarantees
8/15 | Damion Lee’s salary partially guarantees
8/17 | Las Vegas Summer League Ends
9/28 | Training Camp Begins
10/19 | Gary Payton II’s partial guarantee increases
10/19 | Opening Night
Current 2021–22 Roster
- Kevon Looney’s 21/22 Player Option exercised on 6/29
- Alen Smailagić’s 21/22 salary is Non-Guaranteed (Deadline: 8/6)
- Gary Payton II’s 21/22 salary is Non-Guaranteed (Deadline: 1/10 | $659,004: 8/11 | $1,318,008: 10/19)
- Damion Lee’s 21/22 salary is Non-Guaranteed (Deadline: 1/10 | $500,000: 8/15)
- Mychal Mulder’s 21/22 salary is Non-Guaranteed (Deadline: 1/10)
- Jonathan Kuminga is an un-signed first-round pick
- Moses Moody is an un-signed first-round pick
Current 2021–22 Depth Chart
Unsigned Draft Picks
2021 Unrestricted Free Agents
2021 Restricted Free Agents
- Qualifying Offer (Two-Way) extended on 7/31
Salary/Cap Information
Warriors 2021/22 Total Salary: $167,478,594
Warriors 2021/22 Guaranteed Salary: $160,025,480
Warriors 2021/22 Total Cap Holds: $41,914,960
Projected 2021/22 NBA Salary Cap Figure: $112,414,000
Projected 2021/22 NBA Luxury Tax Threshold: $136,606,000
Projected 2021/22 NBA Luxury Tax Apron: $143,002,000
Bird Rights
Non-Bird
- Players who have played 1 season with the same team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.
- Allows team to re-sign player to 120% of their previous salary or 120% of the minimum salary, whichever is greater.
- Max 5% Raises
- 1–4 Years Contract Length
Early Bird
- Players who have played 2 seasons with the same team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.
- Allows team to re-sign player to 175% of their previous salary or 105% of the average salary in the previous season, whichever is greater.
- Max 8% Raises
- 2–4 Years Contract Length
Bird
- Players who have played at least 3 seasons with the same team and completed their contract before becoming a free agent.
- Allows team to re-sign player up to the maximum salary.
- Max 8% Raises
- 1–5 Years Contract Length
Max Contracts
- Kelly Oubre Jr. is eligible for a 25% Max Contract
Mid-Level Exceptions
- The Warriors are far above the Apron and therefore project to have the Taxpayer Mid-Level available.
Kelly Oubre Jr.’s Free Agency Options
There are basically three ways Oubre’s free agency can play out.
Oubre re-signs with the Warriors
When the Warriors decided against moving Oubre at the trade deadline, it seemed to be an indication that they had at least some intention of retaining him in the off-season. Although he’s not exactly a perfect fit on this roster, for a cap-strapped team like the Warriors, players of Oubre’s caliber are hard to come by and at the very least retaining him both as a trade asset and salary slot could be beneficial for their long-term prospects.
Since the Warriors hold his bird rights, they can offer him more money than any other team, so they can’t be outbid. However, whether or not Oubre returns will depend on if they can come to terms on both salary and role. At a certain figure, the Warriors might deem him too costly to afford and with Klay’s impending return Oubre’s potential role next year would be in a reduced capacity compared to this season which is something he might not be keen to accept.
A league source told Connor Letourneau that Oubre is expected to command offers in the $15 million range. Another source told Michael Scotto that Oubre’s camp thinks he can get a long-term deal at over $20 million annually.
Bob Myers recently was asked if the Warriors had a spending limit and said that he felt $400M would be exceeding that limit. Given the financial impact of retaining Oubre at his expected market value, it seems unlikely he will return.
Oubre signs with another team
If Oubre can’t agree with the Warriors on salary or role, he will test the market and see what kind of offers he can get. As of now eight teams project to have cap space (Knicks, Thunder, Spurs, Mavericks, Raptors, Hornets, Pistons, Heat) and could attempt to lure Oubre to their teams with the promise of a significant role. These teams would be capable of signing Oubre outright without having to receive him in a sign-and-trade which means the Warriors would lose him for nothing. Obviously not the ideal scenario.
The Warriors sign-and-trade Oubre to another team
If Oubre chooses to leave, this would be the Warriors’ preferred mode for him to do so, as they would want to recuperate some sort of asset out of him. For Oubre, if none of the eight cap space teams are a good fit and instead he would like to move to a team that can’t sign him outright, this would be the way to accomplish that.
Before we get into the different sign-and-trade options, a major caveat to consider is the Oubre will be most likely subject to a provision known as base year compensation.
Base year compensation (BYC) applies to any player who meets the following criteria in a sign-and-trade:
- Bird or early bird free agent
- Above minimum salary
- Raise greater than 20%.
- Team is at or above the cap immediately after the signing
Oubre is a bird free agent, who will get an above minimum salary, and the Warriors are significantly over the cap; so those three criteria will be met. The question will be whether or not Oubre meets the 20% criteria.
The importance of this is that if a player is subject to BYC that means his outgoing salary for salary matching purposes is counted at either his previous salary or 50% of his new salary, whichever is greater.
So if Oubre were to sign a new deal with a starting salary that is exactly 20% of his previous salary ($17,250,000) then he’s not subject to BYC so his actual $17.25M salary is used both as his outgoing and incoming salary. However, if he signs for any more than that, whether that’s $18M or even all the way up to his projected $28,103,500 max, then his outgoing salary goes back down to his previous salary, $14,375,000. This means the Warriors can’t sign Oubre to $22M and subsequently trade him for a $22M player. The most salary they could take back straight up for him would be $18,068,750 in that scenario.
There are three options the Warriors have with a sign-and-trade.
1. Sign-and-trade Oubre to a team for players under contract
This is the Warriors’ best bet if they want to get some value out of Oubre. A common misconception is that all teams that participate in a sign-and-trade are hard-capped. This is not true. Only the team receiving the S&T’d player is hard-capped, so in this case, only the Warriors’ trade partner would be subject to it. Outside of the Nets, the rest of the teams in the league should be around the tax apron so the Warriors could trade with any of them. The Warriors could trade Oubre for one player or multiple. They could combine his salary with Looney, Paschall, etc. There’s a variety of options. Just largely depends on what Oubre wants and what the team signing him is willing to give up.
2. Sign-and-trade Oubre for a Traded Player Exception
This is at the minimum what the Warriors will want to get out of this. At the very least they keep Oubre’s salary slot alive for another year and can try to get someone who could help them in the trade market. However, the caveat here is that they can only get a TPE for Oubre by trading him into a TPE or into cap space. Cap space teams aren’t incentivized to do this because they can just sign him outright, so the Warriors would have to throw in a sweetener, probably in the form of a draft pick, which is something the Warriors don’t have a lot of.
They only have three seconds in the next seven drafts and can only trade 2/3 out of their 2021 and 2022 firsts. 2023–2027 is Stepien protected, meaning they can only trade a first that’s after 2022 that is two years after the outgoing pick to Memphis conveys, so they have to wait until that happens.
Projected non-cap space teams that currently have a TPE larger than $10M are the Magic ($15M) and Celtics ($11M). However, the Celtics currently project to be $7M below the apron and have an impending free agent in Evan Fournier who they will most likely prioritize.
So it’s really just the Magic and the eight cap space teams they could potentially get a TPE from.
3. Execute a double sign-and-trade sending Oubre to a team for one of their free agents
It’s not feasible for the Warriors to do this, but it gets asked about a lot, so wanted to include it anyway and explain why it’s not feasible.
Any team that receives a free agent through a sign-and-trade is hard-capped at the apron for the rest of that season. The apron is projected to be around $143M next season. The Warriors currently have 13 players under contract next season for $168M, which doesn’t include any potential draft picks, the MLE, or Oubre. This means that they have to not only shed the excess $25M, but also the amount of the incoming player (since Oubre is being used as the matching salary so they’re receiving additional salary). This means at the minimum, Wiggins will have to be moved for no incoming salary, but even that itself won’t be enough. It’s just not feasible, and not worth it for whatever player they could get. So this option is not happening.
Important Off-Season Questions
What do the Warriors do with their first-round pick(s)?
Heading into the lottery the Warriors currently hold the 14th pick and the 6th pick through Minnesota. The 14th pick has a 2.4% chance of landing top-4, so it will almost certainly stay at 14. The Minnesota pick, which is top-3 protected, has a 72.4% chance of conveying to the Warriors and a 9.6% chance at becoming the 4th pick.
If the pick conveys it will most likely be around the 6–8 range. Many draft experts are calling this a 5-player draft (Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs, Jalen Green, Jonathan Kuminga) and unfortunately for the Warriors, the odds are that they will be picking after those five with both of those picks.
There are still plenty of interesting prospects for them to consider (Davion Mitchell, Franz Wagner, Corey Kispert, Scottie Barnes, Keon Johnson, Moses Moody, Jalen Johnson, Zaire Williams, Tre Mann, Josh Giddey), but the Warriors will have to decide if getting one or two of these guys is the right course of action or if they should look to try to move these picks. Whether that’s combining both to try to move up in the draft or moving them for already established veterans who could help more in the short term.
UPDATE: The Warriors selected Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody with the #7 and #14 picks respectively in the 2021 NBA Draft.
What do the Warriors do with James Wiseman?
Outside of Oubre and the two lottery picks, Wiseman is the biggest question mark for the Warriors this off-season. Do they trade him or keep him? Bob Myers recently stated that “I expect him to be on the team next year. We don’t want to trade James Wiseman.”
Judging from a few different reports it seems like the Warriors aren’t interested in trading Wiseman unless he’s in a package for an All-Star caliber player and it remains to be seen what sort of All-Star could potentially be available this offseason.
There are essentially four tiers.
Tier 1 | All-Stars on contenders: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler, etc.
All of these players are on teams with championship aspirations. None of these teams are expected to clean house and rebuild, they all went to keep building on what they already have. Something drastic would have to happen for any of them to become available and it’s very unlikely to expect that they will.
Tier 2 | All-Stars on young teams: Bradley Beal, Karl Anthony-Towns, Brandon Ingram, etc
Beal on paper seems like the most realistic possibility, but he’s gone on record to say he’s not interested in a trade and wants to build something in Washington as ‘the guy’.
The others are all young players on young teams looking to build for the future. They’ve already cleaned house and blown it up, this is their rebuild.
Tier 3 | Mid-Tier All-Stars: Pascal Siakam, Gordon Hayward, Jerami Grant, Julius Randle, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Kristaps Porziņģis, etc.
All of these players are probably available for the right price, but the question for the Warriors is how much better they feel any of these players are than Wiggins (who’d most likely have to be used for matching salary) to the point where they would be willing to add Wiseman or picks to facilitate a trade.
Tier 4 | Washed-Stars: Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker, John Wall, Kevin Love, Al Horford, etc.
These are all players who should definitely available but are either flawed, old, injury-prone, or all of the above. The Warriors aren’t trading for any of them, especially not on those contracts.
The bottom line is while it makes sense for the Warriors to consider moving Wiseman for immediate help, they will still want to get solid value out of any trade he’s involved in and won’t be willing to part with him for pennies on the dollar. Anyone they move him for should have a significant enough impact in the short-term to make up for the long-term potential they’re are losing out on and considering what we can expect the market expects to look like this off-season, there probably isn’t anything out there that’s worth it from their perspective. Wiseman’s value is hopefully at its lowest point following a lackluster rookie season, so if the Warriors aren’t able to find a suitable trade for him this off-season, they can re-assess what their options are the following off-season, and at that point, Wiseman’s value should’ve upped at least a little to make a trade more feasible.
Other off-season questions
Kevon Looney’s Player Option
Something to watch ahead of free agency is whether or not Kevon Looney picks up his player option. Looney, who turned 25 a few months ago, is coming fresh off arguably his best season as a Warrior after putting behind him an injury-plagued season. On August 1st he will have to make a decision on his $5,178,572 option. It’s hard to imagine he could get a similar value starting salary on the open market given injury concerns and his playstyle/fit, but Looney might be interested in potentially taking a little less for long-term security. In a recent interview with Marcus Thompson, he mentioned that “if Steph wants to give me something he can get me a new contract. I’ll take one of those.” Although said in jest, it could indicate Looney’s intent on signing a longer deal. However, it’s probably more than likely that he picks up the option and the Warriors address his contract situation next year, but still something to monitor nonetheless.
UPDATE: Kevon Looney is exercising his $5.1M option to return to the Golden State Warriors next season, sources tell ESPN. (Wojnarowski)
Steph Curry’s Extension
One very obvious thing that will be taken care of this off-season is Steph’s extension. Marcus Thompson, who is as close to Steph as anyone in the media, has reiterated a few different times now that Steph is expected to sign it.
Some have asked why Steph didn’t just sign the extension this past off-season when he became eligible to do so and the reason for that is he could only tack on three years additional years. This off-season he can tack on four.
Some have also asked if there is any benefit for Steph to wait until 2022 to re-sign and the answer is no. Steph’s 4yr/$215M max extension he can get this off-season is the same exact thing he would be able to sign as a free agent in 2022. He can’t sign a 5-year deal in 2022, because the Over-38 rule would negate the benefits of the 5th year and his max salary will still be the same unless the projected 2022–23 cap increases by at least 19% which is incredibly unlikely. There is no financial benefit for Steph to wait until 2022.
Lastly, some have asked if there is any benefit for Warriors if Steph were to take less than his max and the answer is, not really. The Warriors are so far over the cap for the foreseeable future that Steph taking less solely decreases their luxury tax and nothing more. Now maybe doing so may motivate Lacob and co. to be more willing to do a couple of costly moves (à la Durant taking less to make sure they re-sign Iguodala and Livingston back in 2017), and maybe when Wiggins’ contract is up there might be an opportunity for a little roster re-shuffling where a pay cut could factor into their options, but Steph is the reason why the franchise is where it is and deserves every penny.
Justinian Jessup
Jessup is a much more minor thing to watch. He has had a solid rookie season in the NBL and finished the regular season contributing 13.3ppg, 3.7rpg, 1.7apg, 1.1spg on .429/.340/.780 for the Illawarra Hawks. Bob Myers was asked about Jessup recently and said that the plan is for him to be in Summer League, which makes sense since the Warriors wouldn’t have to buy him out of his contract to do that, they would just need permission from the Hawks. This way they can at least get a look at him in their system for a couple of games before making any decisions.
However, the question is if we will see Jessup in a Warriors uniform past Summer League, and the biggest obstacle is his contract situation. Ideally, the Warriors would put Jessup on one of their two-ways next season, but that’s not something they can do outright. Jessup’s Next-Stars contract with the NBL is for two years and if the Warriors want to bring him over this summer they have to buy him out of it, as far as we know. The NBA CBA prohibits any player that is internationally bought out from being placed on a two-way or Exhibit 10. This means the Warriors would have to commit a 15-man roster spot to him.
Now there might be a loophole depending on how the NBA legally defines “in connection with securing the rights to enter into any such two-way contract” where the Warriors could potentially sign Jessup to a non-guaranteed minimum, waive him, and re-sign him to a two-way. However, by doing that the Warriors lose their exclusive draft rights to him which means that any team could claim Jessup on that non-guaranteed minimum or have the freedom to negotiate any sort of deal with him once he clears waivers. It would be a big gamble.
The most likely scenario is the Warriors bring him in for Summer League, see how he looks up close, see what they can do during the draft/free agency, and if they have a 15-man roster spot they’re comfortable giving to him, they do so. Otherwise, Jessup can go back to the NBL and continue his development.
Damion Lee
Lee has been increasingly productive every season and has played himself into a role on this team at the very least as the ultimate stay-ready reserve. A 39.7% three-pointer shooter, who’s a fairly good rebounder for his size, and plays well within the Warriors system, it’s hard to find a better value on a minimum deal. The Warriors will have to decide on him two weeks into free agency when Lee’s contract guarantees for $500k, but Lee will likely stick on the roster as a dependable deeper reserve.
Mychal Mulder
Mulder has been serviceable when called on, especially towards the end of the season, shooting 39.7% from three and generally doing a good job of playing within the flow of the offense. Given his non-guaranteed deal that doesn’t trigger until January, it’s likely he will make it to at least training camp. However, with the Warriors’ plethora of small wings, especially if Bazemore and Lee are retained and Jessup makes the jump over, there probably will not be a spot left for Mulder on the 15-man roster heading into the season. They could potentially give him a two-way spot if he were to clear waivers and not get picked up by another team.
Gary Payton II
Payton II looked very comfortable in his limited time with the Warriors and could fill a need as a defensive-specialist guard option. However, the Warriors will presumably look to address their point guard depth elsewhere. Payton II’s contract partially guarantees for $659k ten days into free agency, so the Warriors will have to make a decision pretty early on him. Depending on what the Warriors do in the draft and free agency, Payton might have a chance of making it on the roster as the third point guard.
Alen Smailagić
The Warriors and Smailagić’s representation will most likely agree to push back his 8/6 guarantee date to some time after Summer League or even training camp, however, there is almost no chance Smailagić sticks on the roster past then and instead should find himself in Santa Cruz continuing his development unless another team picks him up.
Kent Bazemore
Bazemore, despite his shortcomings, was a bargain-signing at the minimum for the Warriors this past season. He’s a capable veteran 3&D, who shot a career-best 40.8% from three, knows how to play in rhythm with Steph and Draymond, and provides disruptive on-ball defense. The Warriors reportedly are interested in bringing him back and could do so on another minimum ($2,401,537 with a cap hit of $1,669,178) or even at a slight raise through the non-bird exception ($2,881,844). The question will be if that’s enough as Bazemore is reportedly interested in a multi-year deal.
Nico Mannion
Mannion will be a restricted free agent and his qualifying offer will be another two-way. It’s fairly likely that the Warriors bring him back for another season on a two-way. He’s only 20 years old, just drafted a year ago, and the Warriors seem to like him enough to continue developing him with presumably heavy game time in the G League next year.
UPDATE: Per a source: The Golden State Warriors have extended a qualifying offer to Two-Way player Nico Mannion. He’s now a restricted free agent. (Smith)
Jordan Bell
Bell was purely brought in as an emergency depth piece for the playoffs. Outside of considering him for a non-guaranteed training camp deal, we shouldn’t expect to see Bell return.
